The original question lies here.
For something to be dead, first it has to be unsuccessful. But who is defining success? The Amazon Run sells books. But who is buying them?
A discussion with my good friend Scott Breakall convinced me of something intrinsic to the debate: the “Podcast Novelist” audience is not monolithic. There are many people who listen to a certain number of those authors, but others don’t register on the radar. There are listeners to Scott Sigler who don’t listen to Mur Lafferty, for example. Each of the authors with successful runs to date have energetic, excited fan bases that give it the boost it needs.
The problem inherent in the approach is that, like it or not, the publishing houses do see the audience as Monolithic. Consider this: in the eyes of mainstream fiction publishing, Amazon is still a product of “that crazy internet thing” that they are loathe to embrace. Amazon is a kind of market, and the Podcast Novel is a new sub-market. Each author may have his or her own rabid fan base, but the buyer in large part is someone who has already heard the story for free. They are supportive of the author, and that’s all well and good, but no one new has purchased the book.
Work with me here: the attraction of new media fiction is the idea of circumnavigating the gatekeepers, or more appropriately, the traditional path. We wear the mantle of revolution, all the while waiting for the gatekeepers–the very ones against whom we are revolting–to grant us the validation for which we salivate. In the end nothing really has changed.
Of course, you have to get your book in front of the gatekeepers at some point. It’s the only way to achieve sustainable sales, to make writing more than merely a hobby or, at best, a part-time job. We make a mistake if we begin to think that selling books is a pre-requisite to being accepted by an agent or publisher. Agents and Editors, as a principle, are not interested in representing authors who have already sold books, but rather authors for whom they can sell books. I’m not saying an editor would refuse an established bestseller, and having sold books helps. What I am saying is that an Amazon Run does not guarantee sustainable sales for that editor.
The hope is in the springboard effect: that somebody will take notice and give the author a book deal the way it happened for Scott Sigler. The realization some have yet to come by, it seems, is that Scott Sigler is even still a kind of experiment for Crown. They looked at his monstrous downloads and decided to throw some money into it to see what happens. With a good showing from Infected, they are rushing the sequel to create some momentum.
Not to get philosophical with this, but we have here an issue of causality. Which came first, the good writing or the Amazon Run? This is not some magical key to getting a book deal. The fact is that Scott Sigler and J.C. Hutchins are both with large houses. Scott did an Amazon Run, J.C. did not. It is not a means to the ultimate end. It is a means, to be sure, but the end is hard to define. In the immediate sense it sells books. In the long-term sense, nobody knows. At best it’s a marketing tool, at worst it’s a gimmick, but that is such a fine line. It’s a way to energize the fanbase or community, but the community has already bought into the concept. The community already supports the new media authors. The Amazon run is still preaching to the choir.
So how do we define success in this context? For some, success may be getting the big-time book deal or agent. For others it may be found in merely energizing the community. But ultimate success comes in getting that book on the shelves of bookstores, and the Amazon run is not the best means to that end. The Amazon run is not a bad thing. I’ll probably do it myself when the time comes. But I think couching it in the idea of “getting more exposure” is a non-sequitir. Can you use it in a pitch to an agent? It may, at least, warrant a serious look from the agent or an editor, and sometimes that’s all it takes.
Is the Amazon run dead? No. But it isn’t the magic formula, either.
36 users commented in " Is the Amazon Rush Dead? "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackAgree with you, Jim. The only thing I would add/change is that I think publishers/agents take a slightly different view. Their bottom line is sales and saleability. If a first-time author sells 1000 books in the first week (and I have no idea whether the numbers were 100 or 1000 or 5000 or whatever), that is going to be a significant plus no matter how it was accomplished. I don’t have sources, but I have read stuff to indicate that most first time authors don’t outsell their advance, which means somewhere between 500 and 2000 copies depending on the details.
So yes, it is only one sales tool. But I don’t think publishers are as uninterested in a podcast audience as one might think. If a first-time author can legitimately sell books numbering in the 4 figures, some publishers will be interested, regardless of how they accomplished it.
That doesn’t mean it’s easy. 19 weeks into my first podcast novel, I’d be lucky to sell 100 copies if I just put one together on Lulu or BookSurge and tried an Amazon rush. It would be very dumb unless I was committed to self-publishing and continuous marketing of the book over and above the podcast and the launch. As Sigler and others have said, one has to consistently deliver content and build an audience. Only after doing that will an Amazon rush have the desired results as a good first step.
I by no means think that it’s dead. The concept, the … experiment, is still in its infancy. I do think that podcasters, especially podcast fiction folk, need to be continually pushing the boundaries, thinking of new ways to monetize, evangelize, etc. Much of that depends on what their goals are.
I think we all want to be published one way or another. For my part I recognize that that probably won’t happen any time soon. I am going to go the standard route of looking for agents, seeking publishers, and the like. For me the podcast thing serves a couple of purposes, the first of which has nothing to do with building an audience (though it is on the list). I don’t fancy that we’ll be overthrowing the “gatekeepers” any time soon. In my case I have the additional complexity of engaging with the Christian publishing “gatekeepers” and I’m guessing (and it’s purely a guess) that most of them don’t know a podcast from a hole in the ground.
Will I try an Amazon run one day? Maybe, maybe not. I’m hoping that I come up with a better idea. That won’t preclude a run, but that all depends on the idea.
I do think that it’s certainly possible in the case of the more successful runs that a new reader or twelve were brought into the fold so I wouldn’t dismiss that part of it entirely. But I take your point that it is a sort of preaching to the choir.
You also make a good point with sustainability. It’s not good enough to sell a thousand books in a day. That needs to be followed up with some number of books in the weeks following. Like Hutch said the author needs to continue marketing, pushing well after that run. I don’t think any of them have. And I well anticipate Hutch motivating his Army in some sort of run-like event. And I’ll be there and I’ll likely buy his books.
Getting back to me personally, the whole audience building, social networking piece of this writing gig hsa been more about getting some external motivation for me to write. If that turns into having my own Principality of Angels then so be it. I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. But it’s really for me about trying to become a better author/story teller. I reckon if I’m good enough, gatekeepers or not, the money will come. Maybe not King money, but there are plenty of authors out there making a buck or two and I expect to be one myself one day.
So this may not be as cogent as I hoped, but there you go.
Interesting point re: outselling an advance. The median advance in SciFi and Fantasy is about $5,000. Allowing for a generous 4% royalty, that would mean you have to sell 14,000 copies. If your Amazon Run can eat up a sizeable chunk, then great.
However, once your audience has eaten that chunk, and you get that deal and you publish that book, they’re not going to buy that book again, are they? Sigler got lucky that Crown didn’t want to run with Ancestor right away.
Hi Jim -
Two things. First, I’m in the wrong genre if that figure is true for new authors. What I’ve been told by one agent and seen several places is that for a mainstream thriller like mine, the median for a new author nowadays – which is what we’re talking about here – is maybe 2k-3K for a hardcover, with commission averaging at $1-$2. For a trade paperback, the advance is more like $1500, with comm of say 75-80 cents.
It seems that there is no standard procedure with royalties any more either – some do it on gross, some on net due to all the different discounts out there.
Second, I totally agree that we are talking about a publisher publishing a new book, not one that has had a rush. The latter does indeed raise the question about who will buy again.
I would think that this exact instant is probably the perfect time for a podcaster with an audience of 2500 or more who is at least well into their second book to be approaching a publisher/agent. Sigler, Harwood and the others have done the hard part of showing that you can have success. A year or two down the road, there undoubtedly will have been some “failures” and the field will also get even more crowded with people with solid regular audiences. Not that there are any guarantees now, but I would say things are as favorable as they are going to get for someone just on the edge of having a big enough audience to get a deal.
According to Tobias Buckell’s author survey on advances, $5000 was the median advance for a first time SFF novel, while the median for the most recent novel was $15,000. Granted, it was 2005, but the publishing industry hasn’t changed that much. Most publishers would do it off the net, because they have to make a profit first.
http://www.tobiasbuckell.com/2005/10/05/author-advance-survey-version-20/
Audience may be enough to warrant an extra look-see in a pitch to an agent. But ultimately if your writing is not up to snuff, you won’t get anywhere.
Jim, the publishing world HAS changed over the last two years. After some catastrophic failures involving VERY high advances paid to authors whose books didn’t even come close to paying off, many of them are scaling back advances in a big way, across the board.
“Allowing for a generous 4% royalty”
Royalties are more usually in the 10% range, FYI.
-Tobias
Thanks Tobias! Or should I say Mr. Buckell…
I thought 4% was low, but I couldn’t remember the percentage.
So redoing the math, that would mean you’d have to sell roughly 5,500 copies in an initial run to earn out.
Nobilis, what is that based on?
A magic formula? No. I never imagined it was. For me it was a way to sell books, get involved with my listeners (which is extra hard to do from several thousand miles away), give my agent more ammunition for her pitching of my work (interesting she is asking about such things, including downloads now)- and yes… to have fun. You’d have to ask Tee what his motivations were, but those are mine.
I never would have said it was about ’sticking it to the man’- let’s face- it most people are trying to get the attention of NYC publishers because that is where the money is (at the moment). Not that writing is a profession people would chose if they wanted to become rich.
Amazon runs, dead? No. But part of a marketing plan- I would say yes for small houses, not so important for big houses. Notice Scott didn’t plug so hard for Amazon rush with Infected.
As you recently pointed out in your comment at Chris Miller’s blog (linked above), you did indeed tweet something similar to this post around a month ago. I’m glad you finally took my advice and blogged about the topic.
Unless I’m misreading your post, I believe you’re fundamentally misinterpreting the author’s intent in conducting an Amazon Rush. You write: “The hope is in the springboard effect: that somebody will take notice and give the author a book deal the way it happened for Scott Sigler.” This implies the assumption that the podnovelists who are fortunate and talented enough to get published (nearly all of whom so far have done so via indie presses) and conduct Amazon Rushes are praying that a strong showing will immediately attract the eyes of a deep-pocketed larger publisher, and a big book deal will follow. This isn’t true.
As someone who is personal friends with all of the authors who have used the Rush marketing technique, I can say with great certainty that these folks were grateful to be published at all in this ultra-competitive and shrinking marketplace. They were not expecting Big Publishing to swoop in with a giant check. Their intent was to rally the troops, sell books, make well-deserved money from their creative efforts, and (hopefully) have some bragging rights when the dust settled. Scott Sigler himself has stated that his Crown deal hailed from a “perfect storm” of circumstances, only one of which was his successful Amazon Rush for Ancestor.
I take issue with other comments in your post. I assure you that publishing houses do not see podnovelists’ audience sizes as “monolithic.” They view these listenerships for what they are: solid, engaged “platforms” that will deliver a measure of built-in sales. These publishers — be they indies or mainstream large companies — also understand and anticipate the attrition rates that accompany porting a podnovel for print release. After all, a small minority of fans actually purchase these book when they are published.
You write, “We make a mistake if we begin to think that selling books is pre-requsite to being accepted by an agent or a publisher.” I agree, especially considering that the podnovelists who have launched Amazon Rushes either had a publisher, an agent, or both. None of the successful Amazon Rushes by podnovelists that we’ve seen since early 2007 have been by self-published or POD print authors. All of them had so-called “real” publishers releasing their work. These writers acquired their publishers and/or agents before their books were released. You are warning readers about a phenomenon that doesn’t yet exist.
In addition, you write: “Agents and Editors, as a principle, are not interested in representing authors who have already sold books…” However, agents and publishers are absolutely interested in working with authors who have already sold books; these writers have proven track records. And a great many published authors often quest for more influential agents and publishers as their years in the business increase. It’s called building a career.
Amazon Rushes, you write, are either “at best, marketing tool” or at worst “a gimmick.” Amazon Rushes are indeed both of these things, and are very good at rallying audiences and making short-term impacts. The technique requires further experimentation and innovation if authors wish to achieve more sales over a longer period of time.
Jim, in this post you claim to know what the mainstream publishing houses want, what agents want, that no one new has purchased the book, and even what I want.
Please, cite your sources.
“So redoing the math, that would mean you’d have to sell roughly 5,500 copies in an initial run to earn out.”
5,500 copies of what? Hardcover, trade, or mass market?
A $24.95 hardcover with a $5,000 advance needs 2,008 copies sold to earn out. A mass market more like 6,000 copies.
But earning out doesn’t mean your publisher is making money off you or not. How much was spent on the cover art, the marketing, and what was the print run?
If a publisher printed too many copies, got solid cover art, spent (even a tiny bit) of marketing money, they may be barely breaking even on their Profit and Loss statement on your book, even though you’re seeing more than 2K hardcovers sold
Earning out just means you and as an author have caught up on the initial lump sum and are seeing twice yearly royalty payments, getting a stream of disbursements.
Tobias – I was basing that off of $8.99 paperback, not thinking of the advance coming off of a hardcover. I guess I’m thinking of one of my favorite authors, Patricia Bray, who started with paperbacks. I was trying to make a basic estimate to reach–albeit loosely–a comparison.
Interesting that you say earning out doesn’t mean the publisher is making money. Thanks for your comments, too!
Dude, you’re not listening.
When someone does an Amazon Rush, they have ALREADY SOLD THE BOOK TO A PUBLISHER. They’ve got their advance, and at that point they’re trying to make good on their agreement to the publisher to help SELL the book, so that the publisher makes money and is happy with all the time and effort they have put into the deal.
They’re not looking to sell it again. Got it?
Ah, Hutchins. You sir, have the best comment on the page.
I am not trying to misinterpret an author’s intent in conducting an Amazon Rush. However, can you tell me that not one of them hopes it happens for them like it did for Sigler? I mean, we’re talking about the means to an end, with the ultimate goal being large house publication, right?
I will not say that the authors in question are not ungrateful. I just look at Tee as the first example of that. He’s the first to say how proud he is of Dragon Moon and being a part of their roster. And, you may be right that the authors in question are only looking to rally the troops, sell some books, and have some bragging rights. However, the promotional angle of the Amazon Rush is “more exposure.” “Push me up the charts.” “Make a statement that there is a new revolution in publishing.” Well, exposure to whom? Statement to whom? Readers, yes. But the goal is still to get noticed by the people doing the publishing. And you can’t ignore all the “revolution” talk.
I may be warning readers about a non-existent phenomenon, but it is a very real danger. As with any new kind of thing, it’s easy for people down the road, who get into it later, to get caught up thinking the Amazon Rush is someting it’s not. You cannot tell me that there is not one person out there thinking “boy if only I could have a run like Sigler.” Also, there are likely plenty of small-press, unagented authors who would like an agent to take notice, to get them to the next level. There are agented, small-press authors just waiting to say to a publisher “look how many I sold on Amazon!” And that would be a very legitimate pitch point!
Now we come to the part where perhaps I was unclear. What I meant when I said “Agents and Editors, as a principle, are not interested in representing authors who have already sold books…” I did provide the caveat, “I’m not saying an editor would refuse an established bestseller, and having sold books helps.” If an author has sold books, I would be stupid to assert that Agents and Editors don’t want someone who has sold books. They want people who will sell books, whether established or no. My point was they aren’t looking strictly for authors who have already sold.
Mur
Thanks for your comment.
I believe what I said about Mainstream publishers and agents amounts to them wanting authors who sell books. Where I tried to be as clear as I could is saying on a fundamental level, Agents and Editors want books that they can sell. Correct? Or does that need a source?
I don’t think I said anything close to “Mur Lafferty wants x.” Perhaps you’re including yourself in the “hope for a springboard effect” passage. You’re telling me you don’t hope it springboards to a book deal? Maybe not expect, but hope?
As far as “nobody new buying the book,” if you put out a podcast novel, and people like the podcast novel, and you announce on said podcast and others that you have a run on Amazon, it is still podcast listeners, in the majority, buying the print copy of that novel.
As far as the numbers standpoint goes, I did quote a source, but that wasn’t in the blog post.
A-mazing to see the who’s who of podcast authors chiming in on this hot topic. Good Job, Jim! I would argue it’s still to early to tell where all of this does end up. I don’t think any dust has settled since the first Amazon Rush and we should take a wait and see stance. Deals are still being made and rushes are still being planned I am sure. IMHO, I think you will see this transform into digital copies sold and not hard/softback books. Much like music has gone. I would be interested to know if podcast books are selling for the Kindle.
Nobilis
So you’re saying it’s only about earning out the advance? I can see that point. I was trying to draw a comparison to small press vs. large press. If Ancestor rushed Amazon in the small press version, then followed up with the Crown version, those Amazon sales wouldn’t be there. So it could seem at that point like it didn’t sell well on Amazon. I was just making a hypothetical.
*smack*
Chrisw10
ow.
quit it.
You asked me to!!!!!
chrisw10 – right. carry on, then.
J.C. – also, regarding “monolithic”
I think what I’m trying to say is that, while publishers certainly look at an author’s audience on a case-by-case basis (I assume), isn’t it the case that in large part, they are segments of the larger whole?
*smack*!
Yeah, selling out the advance, and on top of that, just reaching as many people as possible. As has been said elsewhere, it’s not the end-all be-all, but in the end, it’s about just selling books.
Thanks for your thoughtful replies to my comments. While I appreciate the follow-up explanations, I still feel that you are misrepresenting the intent of authors, confusing marketing lingo with real-world results, and have a flawed perception of the publishing industry. Thankfully, we are permitted to politely — and respectfully — remain committed to our own perspectives, and agree to disagree.
Thank you for following Chris Miller’s lead and crafting such an evocative post.
JIm -
You say “You cannot tell me that there is not one person out there thinking ‘boy if only I could have a run like Sigler.’”
like it’s a bad thing. It’s not. It’s an awesome thing. I hope many of us feel that way. The problem would be if we were unrealistic about what it takes or if we failed to recognize that we need to customize our approach for our own work and personality.
If you are specifically suggesting that there are authors believing they can get a small press deal, do a rush and then get a large press deal for the same book, well I don’t know, maybe there are a few. But the problem with anyone who thinks that is less a problem with the Amazon rush and more a problem with some fundamental misunderstandings. Such an author will likely never even make it to step one, getting published by a small press, unless he/she starts focusing on the specifics of his/her own situation.
Hutch -
I don’t necessarily disagree with you in principle. You have been very helpful in properly framing the debate.
I think there is a disconnect between the creator and the consumer here. I believe I may have expressed how authors see things, when I was essentially trying to express how we consumers see the Amazon Rush. I think there are a lot of us who have bought into the “revolution” part of this, and you can’t deny that the new media creators have used that energy to promote their works.
I think where the intent has been sales and additional reader exposure, the selling point has been supporting the author, and I think a lot of us support the authors so that they can move the career forward. Perhaps the intent of the author is different than the intent of their fans, and naturally so?
[...] Is the Amazon Rush Dead? at Indiana Jim’s Blog [...]
I know at least one other podcaster released a book this summer with publicity: Grammar Girl. I don’t believe she did a rush, but she did end up on the NYT Bestseller’s list. Maybe sci-fi and fantasy and grammatical advice are totally different animals, but I guess my point was to wonder what other tactics besides the rush successful authors with podcast-to-print books have tried. Maybe I haven’t been paying attention (and I have been following Hutchins, Lafferty, Morris, and Ballantine for less than a year collectively), but I haven’t actually heard of any other way to do it.
[...] Indiana Jim said it wasn’t dead, but it isn’t what a lot of people thought it was. [...]
[...] I write this, the debate rages on. In my desire to alert the world to the dangers of the “Amazon rush”, I may have [...]
Friend show, art simply super
[...] the Amazon Rush would no longer be as effective as it had been. It continued when I stated that it wasn’t dead, but it isn’t what a lot of people thought it was. The comments of both posts exploded, with both Chris Miller and myself taking our fair share of [...]
Hm that sounds good but I would like to know more details.
Stunning blog and good article. High 5 for u man !
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